ویدیو
ترامپ در برابر ارتش ازکارافتاده ایران؛ «شکار بوقلمون» در خاورمیانه
📋خلاصه
در این ویدیو، من به تحلیل اقدام اخیر دونالد ترامپ پرداختم که از طریق یک پست در شبکههای اجتماعی به ایجاد ائتلافی از نیروهای دریایی کشورهای مختلف برای بازگشایی تنگه هرمز پرداخته است. ترامپ از کشورهایی که تحت تأثیر بسته شدن این تنگه قرار گرفتهاند، خواسته است که ناوهای جنگی خود را به منطقه اعزام کنند، از جمله چین، فرانسه، بریتانیا، ژاپن، کره جنوبی، و دیگر کشورها. این اقدام بخشی از استراتژی ترامپ برای مرحله بعدی جنگ به نظر میرسد.
یکی از نکات اصلی که در این تحلیل برجسته کردم، دعوت چین توسط ترامپ برای مشارکت در این ائتلاف است. این دعوت چین را در موقعیت دشواری قرار میدهد؛ اگر چین ناوهای جنگی خود را اعزام کند، ممکن است به رهبری آمریکا مشروعیت ببخشد و دیپلماسی بیطرفانهاش نسبت به ایران را به خطر بیندازد. از سوی دیگر، اگر چین این دعوت را رد کند، ممکن است به عنوان کشوری که حاضر به همکاری برای امنیت مسیرهای تجاری خود نیست، تصویر نامطلوبی ایجاد کند.
در ادامه، به بررسی وضعیت نظامی آمریکا پرداختم و این که چگونه این وضعیت به تمرین و آمادهسازی نیروهای آمریکایی کمک میکند. آمریکا از این فرصت برای تمرینات نظامی واقعی استفاده میکند و این به تقویت آمادگی نظامی آنها کمک میکند. همچنین به بررسی تأثیرات احتمالی این تحولات بر چین و جمهوری اسلامی ایران پرداختم و این که چگونه این فشارها میتواند به تغییرات بزرگتری منجر شود.
در نهایت، تلاشهای ترامپ برای ایجاد ائتلاف و فشار بر چین و ایران، بخشی از استراتژی گستردهتری است که هدف آن تغییر رفتار و کاهش تهدیدات ناشی از این کشورها است. این اقدامات میتواند پیامدهای گستردهای در منطقه و جهان داشته باشد و تصویر آمریکا را در صحنه جهانی تغییر دهد.
📝متن کامل
It's 2:30 PM on Saturday, Washington, D.C. Eastern Time. There's a lot of news. I'll repeat it again. It's 2:30 PM on Saturday, Eastern Time. And Mr. Trump has made a social media post that is controversial and at the same time shows what his strategy is for the next phase of the war. In the post he posted, he said that a force of different countries will be formed. The Navy is a coalition of different countries to open the Strait of Hormuz, and this is something that the Americans have always done very well since World War I, namely to bring together a coalition, especially a coalition that seemed to be completely broken up, especially on the issue of Iran, and now this post that Mr. Cherampet posted on your social media says that all the countries that are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have called them and asked them to send warships, including Communist China. He also called Xi Jinping and said, "You should also send warships." France and Britain and a number of other European countries, Australia and Canada, and he called all of them and asked them to bring their warships to that area , and this is something that you have seen in American films for more than a century. That is, the Colonel himself does not always go alone and try to break up a group of murderers or a gang. He always creates a coalition, they put a bounty on it. You see, Khamenei has now put a $10 million bounty on Makkah's head . Someone will eventually find that $10 million . Anyone who can provide information will be able to find Makkah. They say Makkah is in a coma. He doesn't know where he is. He thinks he's still there with his father, and he doesn't even understand what his situation is. He's probably turned into a vegetable. But in the end, if someone could tell the Americans where the vegetables are now, they would get the same $10 million cardboard box. And an American movie is always the same, gathering coalitions and going to this one and that one, and the whole drama is about the same story of coalitions and who stays with whom and who matches, and all of this is just a side story. And now what Mr. Trump has done shows what the next stage of the war is going to be like. It seems like this was an initial story. After all of this, we have to see if Trump continues this gaslighting, finishes this initial story or not. He will delay for a while, bring these other countries back, involve them, create a strong coalition against the Islamic Republic, and then go after them again. This is a point that we should pay attention to, but I have been reading a series of analyses and analyses about Mr. Trump's move, which I want to understand more than I want to come and explain to you. And I gave you one of them, translated by Jeep Pete John, and I want to read it to you because it is a very clear analysis and It is realistic to see what Mr. Trump wants to do. He says that Trump has effectively invited China to send warships to protect the waterway that China uses to replace the dollar . Read his post on True Social carefully. This is perhaps the most strategic sentence of the entire war. Trump says in quotes that he hopes that China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and other countries that are hurt by this artificial restriction will send their ships to the region so that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a threat from a country that has been completely beheaded. The end of this part that Mr. Chan said continues the analysis that this invitation is actually a waste. Any reaction that China shows will end up to its own detriment. If Beijing sends a warship, it will not actually legitimize the US-led coalition. It will place China's naval power under the architecture of the US Supreme Command and abandon its diplomatic neutrality towards Iran . A country that currently allows China to transit the strait only in yuan while others are denied it, China in one move would lose the advantage of Iran’s cheap oil shadow fleet and the leverage of the CIPS payment system that China itself has. If Beijing rejects this request, it would confirm exactly the picture Washington wants to see of the world. That China is willing to let the global economy burn but not contribute to the security of the waterway through which 45% of its own crude imports pass. Every country that is forced to buy oil at $96 a barrel while China buys through shadow fleets and cheaper yuan transactions will see who is willing to step in and who is not. The free-riding narrative is taking shape, and with it the US writes the next chapter in the dollar saga. Trump named six countries. Five of them are US allies or partners. Japan, which will sign the second Golden Gate agreement in 5 days . France, which operates from Djibouti. Britain, Bahrain and South Korea, which are directly dependent on Hormuz for energy. Their presence is predictable, but the main question is China's presence, and this is the question of weapons, and this policy that Mr. Trump, I said, I've been saying this for days. This is a major part of this war. It's not about the Islamic Republic, it's not about the IRGC, it 's not about proxies. The major part of it is about China. Those other stories are also important, but their priority is lower. The main problem is China. By taking the Islamic Republic's place, China has now backed into a corner. China gets most of its oil from there. It has to import most of its energy . It has to import most of its raw materials. And now the situation that China is in is stuck in a dilemma. A dilemma that is not only a diplomatic dilemma but could turn into a very bad economic dilemma for China. Because of this situation, even if the Islamic Republic is allowed to pass its ship for the time being and wants to deliver an oil tanker to China, this is temporary. It can change easily. If China is not present there, all its interests will be jeopardized. It will no longer be able to import oil at all. That is, it will be cut off at 45 degrees. And don't forget, anything that passes through the Strait of Hormuz to go to China must pass around India. India itself is a branch for China. And then it must pass through the Strait of Malacca, which is narrower than the Strait of Hormuz. In fact , it connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. It must pass because the Strait of Malacca is completely in the hands of the United States , meaning it is entirely in the hands of the US military. And this could be temporary. If China is not willing to support this, there is another video that I wanted to leave for you to watch here behind me. This video that a few months ago was posted by an American military channel shows the ammunition that they have been moving for a while now, and we haven't paid attention to much of it. I'll turn it off now. But look, just look at how many bombs and missiles the Americans have brought in just the last 3 months. This video is from 3 months ago. They are showing how much heavy ammunition they have moved during these 3 months, and we see this is the row of bombs that they have placed, and now the Americans have ammunition. There is a story that sometimes they say, for example, that there is a shortage of ammunition in some areas. First of all, I don't know who is going to count these, so that he can come and explain to us now. What kind of sane person would come and say, for example, I only have 2 magazines left, and if he says something, for example, he is somewhere, he is at home now, he says I only have 2 magazines. You have to believe him. Maybe he has 100 magazines. He is lying to you. And now all this equipment that you see is being brought to the region. I am posting this video so that you can see it with your eyes and believe it. If your heart doesn't believe that America is using this story now, what for? An important part of the US military that the Trump administration is paying attention to now, especially after Russia's attack on Ukraine, is how prepared the US military is. How prepared is it to enter real wars? And the US has never really had this opportunity since 2003 because no country is willing to stand in front of the US. No country in the world is willing to stand in front of the US. That's why they don't have the opportunity to do real training. Now the war with the Islamic Republic has become a real training for the US military. That is, if you listen to the speeches of Secretary of War Peisted, General Duncan, and Admiral Cooper, they say, "Hey, their pilots say, if we can go on another mission, if we can go on another mission, let's do a mission in Iran." The reason is that they don't have this battlefield experience, and they always had this equipment and ammunition. No one stopped them. They always roamed the world for themselves. Now there is this opportunity for them to practice, and this training and the army do not underestimate it. They will also beg Mr. Trump, the military, not to stop this because right now, the equipment that the Islamic Republic does not have, I do not like, it did not have before, everything it had belonged to the United States, if there was any equipment, the Chinese bastards would put as much as they could in their pockets, that is, 5 billion dollars. Now in Washington, they say that the Islamic Republic gave gold to China. How long has it been since it bought a radar system? This is the result that you see in the sky of Iran, that is, 5 billion dollars. You went and bought nonsense, you put this on that tower, it all went up in smoke, the sky went up in smoke. I think in the first few hours of the war, and so there is no special equipment left. Now, they can practice targeting, they can hit, they can practice hitting exactly where to hit. This is all the IRGC, Basij, Islamic Propaganda Organization, Guardian Council, Supreme Leader's House, and Koft, Dard, and Venom Snake have buildings there. What better way to take all of this down? All these buildings are coming down, they are being taken down one by one. Don't have an office, work remotely from home, and this exercise is important for the US military. This is much more than a war. Now, let them worry. They spent $11 billion. They spent $11 billion. They're spending another $11 billion. This country is probably throwing away $20 to $100 billion a year like this for people who... They just want to get a free handout, get money from the government, work, get money from the government, it's 100 billion dollars, they just burn it and throw it in the trash, it doesn't matter to the federal government, you don't know Washington, DC, I mean, Washington, DC, there's a famous saying about it that says there's nothing more long-term than the government's short-term plans. Nothing more long-term than the government's short-term plans . Why? Because they say this is short-term, 6 months, we only want to do this for 6 months, we want to do something, those 6 months will be repeated again, and it will be repeated again. People just go to work, they burn money, just like that. There is no need for that organization at all. You know what they are doing. No one really has time to ask them. The US government is so big. No one has time to ask many of them, what is your added value that you get 40 billion dollars a year. You sit here and have 10 buildings in the best parts of Washington, D.C., and they don't care. They don't care that they are spending 11 billion now. They are spending another 11 billion. They are spending 100 billion. They are spending so much. They are practicing, learning, for now. And they have a lot of tricks that they have. The videos that I see, for example, they are going to hide their missile launch sites behind schools, they are building bases, that's something. If you are really in Iran and you hear that you live around mosques, vacate. If you live around police stations, vacate. Don't tell me what to do with my belongings. For example, if you have a TV at home, pack it up. They'll beat it up and clean it up. Go somewhere else. Go to your house. Go to hell. If you really live in the desert with snakes, wolves, and ants, you'll probably be better off with these bastards. Because in different cities, when they are really under heavy bombardment, they may take people hostage. This is not unlikely, because they are using human shields right now. They hide behind schools, hide in hospitals, pitch tents, sleep among people in parks, sleep where people are, go there and take their weapons. And I have been saying this for a long time. When you hear this on this network , many friends hear it, some don't hear it, some don't pay attention. Some come and say, "We are worried. Now they are going to hit the infrastructure." It's like, for example, we have a chance now, or that infrastructure is still there. I really don't understand what you mean by infrastructure in Iran. If I understand, it is not infrastructure. For example, the Iranian railways still belong to the Nazi era. The infrastructure is from 1945. What is the infrastructure of 80 years ago? If that country is free and open, you will put it up for an international tender. 100 companies will come from the beginning. They are building it now, they are going to knock on my door, really, because they are building it, they are building it better. What infrastructure does the Islamic Republic have? By the infrastructure of the Islamic Republic, you mean the mosque, you mean the Tekiye and the Husseiniyeh. What do you mean by infrastructure? What are these buildings that you are now worried about? Are you worried about a place where they make money and suppress the people? Are you really misguided or are you really eating from somewhere else? I mean, you didn't beat yourself up. You know what the story is, but you're trying to find out. And the infrastructure of the Islamic Republic is not mine. The nation didn't build the stadium for 12,000 people that the Americans went to destroy. I went to that stadium many times. I have good memories of it. But the bastards threw 20,000 Basij members into it every day. They had different excuses from there. They were going to beat the people's children in the streets. It's better to beat them. They'll make it better again. Now we have memories of it too. We're not happy about it. But they're using this. The same infrastructure. That stadium for 12,000 people was built by the Shahanshah. The Shahanshah built it for the Tehran Asian Olympics. [ __ ] Let the Basij forces wave the flag there. Then let them beat the people. No, beat them. Beat them to the ground . If they can't use it, we'll make it better, bigger, more modern, there's no infrastructure in the Islamic Republic. In my opinion, those who say these things are really people who are watering the mill of the Islamic Republic. All of this infrastructure is from the Shah's time. It's all old. It's a piece of junk. They went and bought it by stealing. 100 people took commissions. For example, a cheap Antonov plane. For example, they bought it from a place. They brought it in. It flies for a year. What kind of infrastructure is it? Another point that my friends were pointing out is that unfortunately, it's been 47 years, because the Islamic Republic has been around for 47 years, and people have become numb to it. First of all, they don't believe me. They've heard so many lies and they've been lying to the point of their noses. Don't you see that in these stories, many people, until one thing happens, everyone starts going in a different direction, and there are a lot of sidelines, and suddenly now we have to focus on destroying the Islamic Republic. Whoever comes and says that the infrastructure that has not been built should be demolished. Now we are not talking about destroying the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Republic should be destroyed. All this will be rebuilt, and everything will be better. Many other countries are lining up among themselves, saying, " Sir, sir, let us build it." These are the Germans, the Japanese, the French, the British, the US, Canada, or 100 Western countries, lining up among themselves, building it better. They are so worried about infrastructure. I really don't know. Someone tell me what they mean by this infrastructure. I am happy that the infrastructure that the US is doing took 3 months. It's been 3 months since I've been using this equipment, one by one, I can't hear them inside. They're taking it out one by one, taking it there, lining up these bombs for you. This is the infrastructure. This is what it does. Now you can come and stop this. You can come under the industrial base and take this. If the Islamic Republic had four companies that produced it, it would be destroyed. That means they can only produce with their slingshots. They have nothing left. They have nothing. They took it back to the time of Imam Hussein, when they were very happy. Meanwhile, I was thinking that they were falsely claiming that Imam Hussein went to Karbala and there were 72 people and one of his armies was Yazid, I don't know how many thousand people. They themselves claim that it took 3 days to kill him. They killed Khamenei in the first hour. I mean, they are so stupid, even in their own narratives, they are losers. That is, even if you look at it with that false logic of fantasy, that story they made up, even if you look at it with that logic, that guy with 72 people at least bombed for 3 days. You hit him on the first day, they were crushed and nothing was left. There is not much left for the Islamic Republic. From here on out, it will be more severe. Taking Kharg Island is important. In my opinion, where he can declare victory, Mr. Trump's speech today showed that his intention to put more pressure on China was completely clear. In other words, if anyone had any doubts, with this money he gave and invited me from China to come there, China doesn't know what to do in China right now. Accepting it is a misfortune. Not accepting it is another misfortune. For now, their ships can pass there. For now, their tankers can pass there. For now, the Islamic Republic is filling up its tankers for China through the Strait of Hormuz. I said that. Tankers should say, "Get out of the way of the US army, get out of the way of India, get out of the way of Malacca, get out of the way of sand, it can easily change. In a split second, the same 45-year-old can stop. They should go burn wood in the Chi to produce energy. And this pressure that Trump is putting now is not on China, the main pressure is on the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Republic is nothing. It is beating and smashing a large part of their equipment. I know that the Islamic Republic took Chia towards Mashhad. Now they think that America will not reach there. They will reach there. In the next stage of the war, don't worry. They will use the emblems. You hid the ones you took in Mashhad and hid them in the distance in Khorasan. And you think that now you have saved some of your equipment for now. They will use the emblems there. They will do something. You will have to, for example, go by bicycle. Really, they will take away your engine with that engine. With these drones that Israel has just announced , I said in the previous live broadcast that they have giant planes. This plane is like a tractor. It opens its back, thousands of insides spill out, and they all have solar panels with AI facial recognition. They can turn off, sit down, and start again. They can find specific people. They can only go to certain specific people based on their faces. This ability exists. This has not yet reached Iran. That stage has not yet begun. When that stage begins, then you will see that these same people who are trying to hide among people will go and use people as human shields. We will see them one by one, and they will be punished for their actions. This is not something that the Americans will give up on anytime soon , and Mr. Trump's move today is to actually invite other countries. You count the number. After Britain killed 30,000 or 40,000 people, they sent congratulations to them for the 22 Bahman ceremony. Well, you mean, look where they are. I mean, Britain is really the biggest loser in this war, and now it's time to shake it off for America. In my opinion, Mr. Trump has left the last way open for Britain. Because I'll tell you something about Britain. Britain, right now, America hasn't come to her to try to hurt her. You know that Mr. Trump's mother is originally from Scotland, and the Scots hate the English very much, if you want to think about it. Who hates the English? First of all, Scotland. Do you remember the movie Braveheart by Mel Gibson? The war that took place between Scotland and Britain? Actually, the English. Mr. Trump feels that he is the same Braveheart. Actually, he thinks that his family was a very aristocratic Scottish family. They have completely different opinions. Scotland was a part that only became one when it joined the English. They formed a common flag and went on to conquer the rest of England and then go on to take over other countries. It started with Scotland. Scotland can easily be bothered if America wants to. Right now, it is thinking about independence. And if Scotland becomes independent, Britain will have nothing left. It means that it will be torn apart. Ireland will separate. The rest of me will separate. And London will become Londonistan. It will really become Londonistan. They will close their borders. Scotland and down there it will become Londonistan. And another part, another country, Britain will no longer be British. It will become England. That other part will become England. Scotland will separate, maybe. Wales should secede. Wales is very beautiful, but its resources are also limited. In short, I think this is the last resort. Believe me, before Mr. Trump opens up about Scotland in that story, Britain, meaning the Americans, has already reached their destination. This next level is that if they want to bother them, they should really support the independence supporters in Scotland because Putin and the Islamic Republic are also trying very hard to do something to make Britain fall apart. And here in America, some people say, why not fall apart if they really can't hold themselves together. You were once an empire. An Ahmadinejad used to say that it is an island in West Africa. It has really become an island in West Africa now. A mix of Karachi and Mogadishu, and for example, New Delhi is a mix of this with a bit of Russian and now agents of the Islamic Republic. This country has completely lost its identity . Did you go and congratulate the Iranian people on February 12th, or did you send an envoy to congratulate them? Well, this is the last door that Mr. Trump has left for you. And if Britain really doesn't accept this door and doesn't enter this war and doesn't help, I don't think things will be very good. Other than that, France, which is always one way and the other way, and exactly selling sides, meaning nothing at all, the same thing, the same Macron, the same Jacques Chirac, really selling sides, meaning that it has now shown that it really doesn't understand the mess its country is in. France is in economically, politically, the credibility of their legitimacy, their country, you see their videos, full of theft. The situation that they really wanted to create for America. Now Emmanuel Macron has created for France, and there is not much hope for them to come and help. But the moment they form an American coalition, it shows that America's diplomatic power has won. Mr. Trump can really declare victory, I'm declaring victory right now. If they do, they will truly win. I don't doubt that there is anything left in the Islamic Republic that they haven't hit, tactically. They will hit the governor, the leader, the missiles, the nuclear forces, the IRGC, the Basij, the motorcade, everyone, everyone, and they will beat the crap out of them right now. I think the point of declaring victory will be the capture of Kharg Island. Will it happen in two weeks? Will it happen tomorrow? I don't know. They don't have the expeditionary force. They said, "Come here, Mr. Champ, 5,500 people. They say it will take 2 weeks. It will take 2 more weeks. It will take 2 more weeks. It means you want to go and capture it in 2 weeks. If you are just based on what he announced. If you want to capture it in 2 weeks, you are going to capture it in another week. In the end, the war will continue for 3 more weeks. My second week is over now. We are in the third week. The war will continue for 6 more weeks. Many of those who predicted it said, " I see a scenario where Trump stays until the end. I see this. Many people think that Trump is a coward who will quickly back down. He's just bluffing. This is the longest war Trump has ever fought. He has no interest in backing down. This is Trump's longest war. He hasn't fought in any other war like this in 15 days. I see him staying until the end because the risk is high, but if he wins, he'll be the one they call him, they 'll think about him, and curse him. Mr. Trump is a stupid gambler, a gambler, a science of probability. He's a math whiz. You have to learn this. Trump is good at math, which you don't have. You don't understand. He understands your probabilities. Right now, the risk is high, but the reward is high. To that extent , it means the risk is high. If you can, if not, keep doing this, how much more can these people make? How much are they losing right now? They are fighting with themselves right now. Right now, the cardboard is not known where it is. It is ridiculous and ridiculous and a mess. How much longer can they keep going and America has not suffered that many casualties. Fortunately for now. How much longer can they continue? What if they go all the way? If they go all the way, they will collapse completely. The whole region will change. The world will change. America's image in the world will change. I see this in Mr. Trump, who understands this because as soon as they say he is a gambler, he understands the science of probabilities. He understands that this is a high risk right now, but he can get a very big win from it. He can get a very big win. He can become, for the first time, the first president in American history who has successfully taken over a country and changed his behavior. He has eliminated all his threats. We don't have any other presidents. 3 to 4 American presidents couldn't pull off the Vietnam War. I mean, Carter, who was sacrificed during the Islamic Republic . They used to put a scarecrow in the White House, it was better. Biden was asleep. Obama left and this is the truth. I mean, one by one, he is the first American president who has the ability to do this and he thinks about it, he thinks about it, he thinks about it, let 's go When the New York Times comes out and writes an article saying, "You killed the leader of the Islamic Republic." All these Iranians are happy. The New York Times goes out and puts a picture of Khamenei's mourners on its front page and is deliberately giving you the idea that they are against the war. It doesn't come out to say that some are happy and some are sad. I mean, with this kind of press. If you read that press, you think the roof is really falling off the sky. I mean, the roof of the sky is tearing off and coming down to the ground. But we who know the truth know how well the story is going. We know that Trump is behind it, and I want to tell you this so that you don't worry. Hey, we're not that worried anymore. What's going to happen now? He continues to beat, he really destroys some places, he builds infrastructure, and hey, don't ask me about it. There is no infrastructure. The Islamic Republic has not built any infrastructure. Whatever there is, the late king built it. It's 60 years old. It belongs to a museum. They're rebuilding it all. They're rebuilding it all. There's no more worries about infrastructure. I hope there's no more worries about the prince's story and how well he and Mr. Trump are doing in my next live. I want to know where in the world you're from. Tell me, which city are you from? I'm telling you, tech engineering kids can't start a network in Iran. Hello Dubai Bogota Colombia Ankara Khartoum Don't bother me Arizona Madrid Italy Sweden Glasgow Scotland Istanbul Turin Italy Zurich Nuremberg Lyon Turin Nottingham Stockholm El Malmo London Quebec Denver Tehran Vienna Philippines Berlin Germany We said Moscow Spain Pyongyang I was worried Pyongyang Tour France Dubai Phuket I think you're in Thailand Liverpool Rasht Manchester Kazakhstan Flood Chicago Bonjour Bonjour Tu Yu Qom Arak Antalya Frankfurt Norway Guys, you're so warm, you see good energy, you see positive energy, I love you all, we had another Capital Report together, thank you again. Write your questions in the comments. The comments you leave during the live broadcast will be added later. It should come later. If you have any questions, write them down. I'll read your questions. You know my comments are open. I'll read as much as I can and answer them until the next Capital Report. Bye.